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Re: A look at the early returns on the Houston Rockets’ season

Jatman20 — Wed, 23 Nov 2016 13:47:50 -0000

Nice article Rahat. I'm a stat junkie and you gave us plenty.
I would just caution readers to take stats this early in
the season with a grain of salt. After the Toronto game
tonight the Rockets go on a 5-game road trip with Kings,
Blazers, Jazz, Warriors/Nuggets (back to back). But very
promising stats none the less.

Re: A look at the early returns on the Houston Rockets’ season

Jatman20 — Wed, 23 Nov 2016 13:28:47 -0000

James Harden is the Rockets straw that stirs the drink.
I was watching the Sac/Clips game, where they placed
the same stat on 5-player units. They showed the Clips
starters as first in net, followed by the Rockets, followed
by the Clips second unit. It's the Rockets depth
(and injuries) that may dictate how far this team goes.
A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. The elite
teams will exploit that issue in a 7 game series. That
is why I am saying the Rockets are a couple of players
(To round out the 2nd unit) away from elite. A trade for
Willie C-S, Rudy Gay, Noel would help....I can see Noel
or WC-S duplicating the numbers Capela is currently
putting up which would secure the center position for
a couple years. But it depends on who we give up.

Re: What is the Houston Rockets’ path to contention?

Jatman20 — Tue, 25 Oct 2016 20:36:15 -0000

After D12 was not traded at the trading deadline last
season, I was posting for Dwights minutes to be
lowered to 20-24 minutes a game. Interesting tidbit
(small sample size) of D12 playing 24 mins or less
a gm or not playing while Capela received 20 mins+
a game in 15/16. Capela in those 9 gms.
...........mins..........Pts........Rbs......BLK......+/-.....Tm Pts/gm..
...........26.2..........9.4.........9.4.......1.6....... -8......105 Pts/gm.

Capela minus first game of season 10/28/2015 (8 games)
............26.4..........9.5........9.8........1.5...... +8....107.4 Pts/gm.

I'm interested in seeing Capela w/better shooters surrounding
him and Nene mentoring him over a greater amount of games.
Building consistency will be important to Rockets success.
Nene fits with Capela due to Nene's ability to knock down
a 10 foot jumper. Stats per Stats.NBA.com

Re: What is the Houston Rockets’ path to contention?

Jatman20 — Tue, 25 Oct 2016 00:46:42 -0000

Recommend reading 1) "How Elite Teams Defend
the 3-point shot in the Modern NBA."-ZigZag Analytics
(05/12/2016)

2)"One Team, One Stat: Rockets Regression."-John
Schuhmann. NBA.com (10/08/2016)

3)"MoneyBall to MoreyBall: How Analytics Have Shaped
the NBA Today."-Joseph J. Catalfano. St John Fisher
College.

Re: What is the Houston Rockets’ path to contention?

Jatman20 — Tue, 25 Oct 2016 00:32:47 -0000

Rockets Defense guarding the 3-point line
................OpLtCrn3...OpRtCrn3...AboveBreak...DRtg.......
13/14(reg)...37.0%..........32.5%.......35.6%.......106.3 (13th)

14/15(presea)20.8%.......33.3%........31.8%....................
*(reg season)...35.4%.......32.5%........31.8%......103.4 (8th)

15/16(presea)..50.0%......42.9%........33.1%......................
(reg season)....35.9%......42.4%.........34.9%.....108.1(21st)

*Rockets were number 1 vs Opp 3-pt shooting (14/15)

Per Stats.NBA.com

Re: What is the Houston Rockets’ path to contention?

Jatman20 — Tue, 25 Oct 2016 00:03:26 -0000

Supposedly the MoreyBall core stats are: 1)3P%, 2)Opp3P%,
3)FG% 0-10 ft from basket, 4)OppFG% 0-10 ft from basket.
The Rockets have shipped out some negative defenders
(Beasley/Smoove/JET/TJones) at guarding the perimeter.
Gordon/Ryno are poor defenders on the perimeter but can
nullify the points allowed by making shots and help create
shots by providing spacing. The Rockets can hope to regain
their defensive form of 14-15, where they were #1 vs the 3-pt
shot....with more play from Dekker/Harrell/KJ McDaniels & coaching by Bzdelik. Rockets DRtg was highly rated
when McDaniels entered the court in 15-16. The additions
of some outside shooters has allowed the Rockets to move
from Harden iso's and Howard post ups. Now they have the freedom to run a RGV Vipers uptempo style. NBA teams have
learned the main concepts of the Vipers run-n-gun with NBA
type weapons. Like Portland; The Rockets are missing
1 or 2 free agents to get them over the top. Many have speculated that Llull will join the Rockets; but at a $12
million buyout......hardly unlikely. Redick shot 38% 3P%
last yr w/118 ORtg109DRtg, George Hill 41% 3P%
w/112ORtg106DRtg, Iggy 115ORtg105DRtg, Mike
Scott 39% 3P% 112ORtg104DRtg, young guy to watch
Ian Clark 36% 3P% 108ORtg105DRtg, Ibaka 108ORtg
105 DRtg can play both center and power
forward (spacing). I wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets
make a trading deadline deal this year to shead some
payroll. I believe the Rockets are headed in the right
direction. Morey will have this year to add a key piece
or two (defenders) who can provide enough offense
to this group. Gordon and Brewer may have to be traded
though. We can watch how the free agents mentioned
above perform this year on and off the court. Throw in
Korver who can give us some "end of career" play, much
like Ray Allen or Battier did with Miami.

Re: What impact will Nene have this season?

Jatman20 — Thu, 13 Oct 2016 16:41:46 -0000

Nene can give the Rockets enough PnR, PnPop consistency
options to go along with his constant year after year 103 DRtg.
Look for the Rockets to turn to Nene for 4th quarter action
due to Capela's poor FT shooting. Teams will foul Capela
to disrupt continuity and take their chances with Capela's
FT% over Houston's team FG%. I do want to keep the
minutes for Nene in the low to mid 20's.

Re: Can James Harden lead the league in assists?

Jatman20 — Tue, 11 Oct 2016 19:20:35 -0000

According to NBA.com. The Rockets ORtg went from
107.2 to 99.1 when Harden sat on the bench in 15/16.
ORtg went from 107.07 to 93.7 when Harden sat on the
bench in 14/15. Rockets with Harden on the court
have out scored their opponents by 460 Pts over
the last 2 seasons while being out scored by 162 Pts
over the last 2 seasons when Harden was off the court.
Harden has played 200 minutes more than the next
closest player in the NBA over the last 2 seasons.
I'm hoping Harden averages about 34 minutes a game
this season. 10 assists/game will be a given....12 assists
a game will be in reach (barring injuries). Too many
good catch and shoot guys. Wins will be there as well.

Re: Can James Harden lead the league in assists?

Mark L Gibbons — Tue, 11 Oct 2016 15:13:38 -0000

Who cares? Stats are for losers. Not talking about analytics.
The only statistics that matter are those that correlate with wins and losses. Individual scoring titles/assist titles etc. are meaningless

Re: Reflecting back on the Michael Beasley era

Will — Mon, 03 Oct 2016 22:01:34 -0000

Completely agree with you! 100%
Told myself that my next Rockets jersey was going to be of Beasley, but Guess not lol
Oh well, go rockets! I have high hopes for Kyle Wiltjer.

Re: Previewing the Houston Rockets’ 2016-2017 season on the Dunc’d On podcast

Jatman20 — Wed, 28 Sep 2016 00:16:08 -0000

Catch n Shoot (Thru Player Tracking)...........................
Bev...........41.1 (3P%).....................61.3 (eFG%).........
Harden.....41.0 (3P%).....................60.3 (eFG%).........
Ariza.........38.1 (3P%).....................56.9 (eFG%)........
Ryno.........37.8 (3P%).....................55.1 (eFG%).......
Ennis.........36.4 (3P%).....................52.8 (eFG%).......
Gordon......35.2 (3P%).....................51.4 (eFG%).......
*All individual offensive numbers should tick up due
to spacing of the floor. Ryno is already saying he has
never been so wide open....not just our players in
scrimmage will have this problem on defense.
The best defenses in the league can't cover both
the paint and "all" 3 point shooters.

This leaves Transition (Fast Breaks).............................
Ariza.........24.0% Freq......1.31 PPP.......85.0 percentile
Ryno..........8.3% Freq.......1.19 PPP......70.3 percentile
Harrell........18.5% Freq.....1.21 PPP......73.9 percentile
Bev1.09 PPP.....Gordon1.20 PPP.....Nene1.15 PPP.....
Brewer 1.10 PPP(where he better start producing again).
*For Trade Talk Rudy Gay 1.24 PPP....79.2 percentile
McDaniels should kill this stat this year.

Rockets had 36 games decided by 6 Pts or less during
the 15/16 season (40 games by 7 Pts or less/45 games
by 8 Pts or less going one way or the other). This is why
in my opinion Wiltjer is a keeper to the regular season roster.
In close games it's too hard for the opposition to defend
Harden going thru the lane and Ryno and Wiltjer (who
are both 6'10" & quick releases) shooting 2-3 feet beyond
the 3-point line. The final minute of quarters and final
2-minutes of the game, if managed correctly (fouls, clock
& timeouts) can determine so many wins/loses of close
games this upcoming season. I give anyone the last word.
Peace out!! Enjoy the season!! Go Rockets!!
Defense you ask? See the thread on, "Forecasting
The Houston Defense." View my expectations where
I posted updated projections after the Beasley trade.
IMHO -5-

Re: Previewing the Houston Rockets’ 2016-2017 season on the Dunc’d On podcast

Jatman20 — Tue, 27 Sep 2016 23:43:55 -0000

Spot up (Shooting) ...................................................
Harden......8.2% Freq....1.27 PPP......96.7 percentile
Bev..........36.5% Freq....1.11 PPP.....83.7 percentile
Gordon....27.6% Freq....1.06 PPP.....76.3 percentile
Ariza........40.3% Freq....0.89 PPP.....39.2 percentile
Ryno........20.1% Freq...0.95 PPP......51.3 percentile
Ennis.......19.8% Freq....0.98 PPP.....58.9 percentile
D-Mo......21.2% Freq....0.79 PPP.....23.5 percentile
Wiltjer will factor in big here!!
*Rudy Gay...19.5% Freq...0.91 PPP....43 percentile

Off Screens...............................................................
Ryno..........10.2% Freq....1.06 PPP.....78.0 percentile
Harden.......3.4% Freq......1.04 PPP....70.3 percentile
Ariza...........8.4% Freq......1.02 PPP....68.3 percentile
Gordon......11.1% Freq.....0.95 PPP....53.7 percentile
-Cont 4-

Re: Previewing the Houston Rockets’ 2016-2017 season on the Dunc’d On podcast

Jatman20 — Tue, 27 Sep 2016 23:30:41 -0000

Roll-Man (In PnR) .......................................................
Capela.....18.5% Freq......1.17 PPP.....83.6 percentile
Ryno.........15.1% Freq.....1.07 PPP.....63.5 percentile
Nene.........16.9% Freq......0.96 PPP....39.3 percentile
D-Mo........18.2% Freq......0.88 PPP....23.7 percentile
Harrell.......20.0% Freq.....1.04 PPP.....58.9 percentile
*All of these numbers should improve with the perimeter
shooters and attention on Harden driving. Centers
will have to pick up Harden going thru the lane after
Harden's defender is picked. I take Harden vs centers.
Help has to come. Thus bringing in the open shooters.
One defender most likely will be between 3 point
shooter in corner & wing. Pick your poison!! -Cont 3-

Re: Previewing the Houston Rockets’ 2016-2017 season on the Dunc’d On podcast

Jatman20 — Tue, 27 Sep 2016 23:19:20 -0000

The scheme for D'Antoni can go heavy towards
PnR/PnPop w/kickouts to shooters. This requires
a facilitator (ball handler) w/screener & spot up
shooters along the perimeter....................................
Facilitators: Harden,Gordon, Ennis, Ryno, Dekker.....
Screeners (Roll): Ryno, Capela, Nene, Harrell, D-Mo..
Screeners (Pop): Ryno, Nene, D-Mo...........................
Shooters: Beverley,Harden,Ariza,Ryno,Gordon,Ennis
D-Mo,Wiltjer.

Per NBA/Stats.com. 2015/16.......................................
Ball Handler in PnR (facilitator)....................................
Harden......25.9% (Freq).....0.97 PPP.....91.4 percentile
Gordon.....26.4% (Freq).....0.95 PPP.....89.3 percentile
Ryno.........2.3% (Freq).......0.92 PPP.....85.2 percentile
Ennis........40.1% (Freq).....0.79 PPP.....52.8 percentile

Dekker I feel can do well here (yet to be seen).
Prigioni.....44.2% (Freq)......0.57 PPP.....26.6 percentile
*Trade talk-Rudy Gay...7.0%.....1.03 PPP...95.5 percentile
-Cont 2-

Re: Previewing the Houston Rockets’ 2016-2017 season on the Dunc’d On podcast

Jatman20 — Tue, 27 Sep 2016 22:59:10 -0000

Surely there has to be someone here to question my
58 (+/-2) wins prediction for 2016/17. (You) I do
question it.....and don't call me Shirley. I will
take this time to clarify my position in about 4 posts.
I'm close to Rahat's win ceiling of about 55 (56 to 60
wins if major players stay healthy most of the season).
Injuries can derail a projected win total; many in Vegas
have Houston at about 41.5 wins. This must be
assuming injuries. I was not pleased w/FA pickups this
past summer due to each players history of injury. Nene,
Gordon, Ryno and throw in Beverley/D-Mo....?Dekker?.
After putting pen to paper I can see where the Rockets
are going with this roster & coaches. -Cont 1-

Re: Reflecting back on the Michael Beasley era

Jatman20 — Mon, 26 Sep 2016 23:31:51 -0000

Nice addition for Bucks- interesting team being
put together in Milwaukee. Bucks have some front
court players who can help mask the defensive
flaws of Beasley. Facilitate from the 4 or 5 position.
Site I looked at has Beas listed as a small forward
behind the "Greek Freak". The "Greek Freak" from
what I hear may see some major minutes as the point.
Some are speculating that this paves the way for
Houston to go after Rudy Gay. Yet to be determined.

Re: Reflecting back on the Michael Beasley era

Perla Mcmasters — Mon, 26 Sep 2016 17:50:47 -0000

Too bad for the Rockets. ! He is a talented player who was doing well however,am sure the Bucks will realize he is an asset and will be a great contributor !! Go Bucks.

Re: Forecasting the Houston defense

Jatman20 — Sun, 25 Sep 2016 14:58:39 -0000

In 15/16 The Pistons had the 12th best DRtg (106.48)
So if Houston can produce a 1st or 2nd ORtg
(or 1st or 2nd Off Eff ranking) in the league as I
believe they will; while sporting a DRtg about
12th in the league or better. I predict about
58 (+/- 2) wins this year. * if most rotational
players are healthy for 70 games or more.

Re: Forecasting the Houston defense

Jatman20 — Sun, 25 Sep 2016 14:31:25 -0000

Defensive Rating is a tricky stat. Here are my quick
projections (Keep in mind this is separate from
Defensive Efficiency or Points Allowed):
Player...............14/15.........15/16........Projected 16/17
Harden......DRtg 103.......DRtg 108.........DRtg 106
Ariza..........DRtg 103.......DRtg 108.........DRtg 105
Bev................"... 106.........."... 110............."....107
Capela.........."..... 97.........."....104.............".....103
Dekker...................--........."..... 95..............".....105
Harrell....................--.........".... 110............".... 107
Ryno..............".... 110.......".... 112.............".......111
Gordon..........".... 111......."...... 113.............".......111
Nene............."......102......."......103............".....103
Tyler Ennis....."..... 105......".....111............."......107
??D-Mo??....."......105......"......110............."......107
KJ McD.....DRtg...106... DRtg..110.........DRtg...105
_____________________________________________
That's a projected team DRtg 106.42
(about 12th in the league last year)
Safe to say Chinanu and Payton won't
hurt the Rockets defensively too much
one way or the other as they will probably
spend major stints in the D-league. Wiltjer I
would use in end of quarter situational scoring.
Enter off timeouts for offensive possession
or foul to stop the clock in close games in
order to stay in game during final minute to
minute and 30 seconds. Allowing defense
for Wiltjer to be less of a factor.

Re: Forecasting the Houston defense

Jatman20 — Sun, 25 Sep 2016 13:26:41 -0000

I would like to update my roster with the Beasley trade.

PG) Beverley(1)........Tyler Ennis(6)/Payton II(11)
SG) Harden(2).........Gordon(7)/(KJ McDaniels)
SF Ariza(3)...............Dekker(8)/ McDaniels(12)
PF) Ryno(4)..............Nene(9)/Harrell(13)/Wiltjer(14)
C) Capela(5)............D-Mo(?10?)/Chinanu(15)

Re: Is Patrick Beverley a “lockdown defender”?

Jatman20 — Thu, 22 Sep 2016 16:43:16 -0000

He has to go 70% to prevent injuries. When he goes
all out "beast mode" he gets hurt. 1st round last year
he looked like the old Bev.....then he ended up gimpie.
Rockets traded for Tyler Ennis. 111 DRtg last season;
according to basketball-reference.com

Re: No progress on the Donatas Motiejunas front

Jatman20 — Thu, 15 Sep 2016 17:01:53 -0000

Without an offer from another team: your options are limited.
1) play for the Rockets 2) Don't play in the NBA.

I don't know if he plays in Europe he has to have some
kind of buy-out.....freeing him of his Rockets rights.
I looked up Llull's salary in 2015: it was south of $3 mil.
6 players above him all made less than $3 mil as well.

Play this year and be an unrestricted FA in the summer.
Teams will have big cash again. It scares teams "if"
they are insisting on guaranteed money in 2nd or 3rd
years. Teams may not mind paying the guaranteed
money on D-Mo if he re-injures his back the 1st
year of his deal.....but nobody wants to be on
the hook for the guaranteed money of the 2nd/3rd
year if he gets re-injured in the 1st year. Armstrong
should be mad at the rest of the league for not
making his client an offer when they had money or
before they filled up their rosters in the front court.
Then again he doesn't want to insult a team that may
get desperate if a big man goes down.

Re: What is going on with Donatas Motiejunas?

Jatman20 — Thu, 15 Sep 2016 08:28:43 -0000

Now we see what is holding up the D-Mo signing.....his
agent is a fool. Yesterday he reported the Rockets
are not doing enough to sign D-Mo. What does he
want the Rockets to do? Compete with themselves?
When do you go to an auction and see someone
bid on an item.....and then place another bid on top
of that one; without others placing a bid?
Sign an offer!

Re: Forecasting the Houston defense

Jatman20 — Sun, 11 Sep 2016 01:02:26 -0000

Cont'd
(82 games)
1) About 22 gms Rox lead opponents by 20+ Pts. Harden will
rest 4th quarter; def players w/ facilitator (Beasley or Brown or Gordon or Ryno or Dekker) --win about 21 of 22.
2) About 28 gms Rox lead by about 12-10 Pts with 9-10 mins
remaining. Harden enters gm with predominately defensive players. Rox win about 24 of 28 gms.
3) About 10 gms the Rox are blown out because 3-pointers don't fall.
4) Leaves about 22 gms the Rox will be in a close contest throughout the game. Wiltjer helps win close gms as a strategic situational player who helps spread the floor.....6'10" with good form and a quick release, hits 3-pointers from 2-4 ft beyond three. Designated end of quarter player. Rox win about 13-22 games and get to 58 (+/-2).

In my opinion the Rockets should not play Harden/Gordon
(back court too weak defensively) together or Ryno/Beasley
(Front court too weak defensively) at the same time. Bzdelik's main job should be helping D'Antoni setting rotations....little
to no overlap of these combos together. I'm ok with one
poor defender from front court with one poor defender from
back court......during the regular season. Players have to
stay healthy. Oh and Bobby Brown is a poor defender as well.

Re: Forecasting the Houston defense

Jatman20 — Wed, 07 Sep 2016 22:23:37 -0000

I passed over the topic of defense because I believe the Rockets
offense will crush most teams in the regular season (*if everyone
stays healthy-my small print disclaimer). The Curry hit 64% from the left corner 3 vs LeBron making 98% of his dunks being equal; same amount of attempts. Or the Internet: 33.3% of 3's
vs 50% of 2-pointers equals the same "theory" (same amount
of attempts). I believe the Rockets are going to run most teams out of the gym by killing it from 3: Ariza, Bev, Gordon, Ryno, Dekker, Harden, Brown and Wiltjer....?D-Mo?.
If the Rockets go with:
PG) Bev............Bobby Brown/ Payton II
SG) Harden......Gordon
SF) Ariza..........Dekker/McDaniels
PF) Ryno..........Beasley/Harrell/Wiltjer
C) Capela.........Nene/Chinanu
Buy out or sign with Vipers: Prigioni/Taylor
Brewer/McDaniels may be needed for Rudy Gay trade.
If that is the case Rudy would start w/Ariza off the bench.
D-Mo added would probably result in Chinanu being cut.
Double sided coin when talking about teams scoring on
us and we have to inbound.....Rox will make points as well.
But is the exchange our 3's for their 2's? I expect the
Rox to have 20+ leads in about 20 gms going into
the fourth quarters......Harden will have the 4th off
& we put in our defensive unit (plus one facilitator)
Bev/Gordon/Ariza/Dek/Harrell or Capela or Nene(DRtg 103).
I stick with my 58 wins (+/- 2)....about 24 losses. 3 losses ea
to top 5 teams in West (GSW, Clipps, Utah, ,Spurs, Port) &
Split w/Clev=16 losses. That's about 6-10 losses to play with.
Now the Rockets will win a surprise or 2 vs the elite & lose a few
to lesser teams; but for the most part it will even out to 24 (+/-2)
losses.